Dual-Use Digest: Active Debris Removal

Credit: ClearSpace

In this new series, ‘Dual-Use Digest’, we look at different space technologies and their respective dual-use capability to try and better understand potential space-based threats that could impact future war-fighting, or ways in which the UK and allies can utilise existing technologies to gain a competitive advantage on the battlefield.  

In this insight, we explore the potential of Active Debris Removal (ADR) technologies to address the growing challenge of space debris, while also examining their dual-use nature for both commercial and defence applications.

How can ADR support space sustainability and the safety of critical space infrastructure? What legal and regulatory frameworks are necessary to incentivise its commercial viability, and how can ADR technologies be safeguarded against misuse in a military context?

With space becoming an increasingly contested domain, we seek to understand the implications of ADR on both the future of space commerce and national security.

The ‘Super-Exponential’ Problem of Space Debris

Credit: TU Braunschweig

As of September 20th, 2024, there were 13,230 satellites in orbit, with around 10,200 still functioning and providing services, while the remaining 3,030 have become non-functional space debris [1]. Space debris includes all artificial objects in orbit that are no longer operational [2]. The majority of this debris originates from fragmentation events, such as break-ups, explosions, or collisions of spacecraft and rocket bodies. By September 20th, 2024, 650 fragmentation events had contributed to an estimated 40,500 objects larger than 10 cm, 1.1 million objects between 1 cm and 10 cm, and 130 million objects ranging from 1 mm to 1 cm [1].

This growing population of space debris significantly increases the likelihood of collisions. If the debris population doubles, the risk of collisions could increase fourfold [3]. Collisions at typical spacecraft relative velocities (around 10 km/s) generate thousands of additional debris pieces, which then go onto increase the risk of another collision in-orbit [4]. This phenomenon, known as Kessler’s syndrome, can eventually make certain orbits inaccessible due to the accumulation of debris from multiple collisions [5].

The rise in the number of conjunction events (close approaches between two objects), particularly in Sun-Synchronous Orbits (SSOs), highlights the growing risk satellites face when in-orbit. The number of conjunctions reached a record high of 28 events in 2023 due to the increasing number of constellation satellites and decaying debris objects, such as Fengyun-1C debris fragments from the Chinese ASAT test in 2007 [6][7]. As launch traffic rises and debris continues to decay into lower orbits, the risk of collisions will only escalate for many satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO).

Active Debris Removal Vehicles (ADRVs) - Our Knights in Shining Foil?

Active Debris Removal (ADR) is the removal of obsolete spacecraft (satellites and rockets) or fragments from spacecraft that have broken off satellites and rockets, through an external disposal method [8]. Disposal is safely de-orbiting, manoeuvring into graveyard orbits, or complete destruction of the debris [8].  Disposal can be achieved via an ADR vehicle (as shown in Figure 1) or other methods such as ground-based lasers. Solutions for ADR vehicles would include Astroscale’s COSMIC satellite [9], the ClearSpace claw [10] and Airbus’/Surrey Space Centre’s RemoveDebris technology demonstration [11]. These methods aim to reduce debris to lower altitudes, increasing the drag on the object due to the increasing atmospheric density. This helps to accelerate orbital decay until the debris begins burning up in the thicker atmosphere typically around the 75 km altitude level [12].

Figure 1– ADR mission Concept of Operations [13]. A Concept of Operations (ConOps) is a high-level graphic that outlines a space mission’s operations [14].  ‘ISSA Demos’ refers to the In-orbit Space Situational Awareness (ISSA) demos that could be carried out during such a mission and SC1 is the identified servicer spacecraft performing the ADR mission.

The Dual-Use Nature of ADR – Where is the line?

Active Debris Removal (ADR), as described earlier, plays a vital role in keeping our space environment clean and secure by removing hazardous space debris. This is not just an issue of clutter; it directly impacts the infrastructure that supports essential space-based services relied upon by millions of people each day. In the UK, for instance, a staggering 17.78% of the nation’s GDP depends on satellite services. If satellite navigation were to be disrupted for even just a week, it could result in the loss of £7.6 billion from the UK economy [15].

While the economic losses are significant, they only scratch the surface of the disruption that would be felt in our everyday lives. Without functioning satellites, everyday conveniences we take for granted—such as calling loved ones, making card payments, and accessing imported goods at local supermarkets—could come to a halt. Even something as simple as unwinding with your favourite show after a long day at work could become impossible. These are the cascading effects of not taking action to preserve and secure our space environment.

Technologies like ADR are essential for maintaining the safety and longevity of space-based services. However, the controversy around ADR lies with the fact that just as ADR can remove hazardous debris from heavily trafficked orbital regions, it can also potentially be used to manoeuvre an adversary spacecraft out of its original orbit, rendering it unable to perform its intended function. This strategy of removing adversary spacecraft out of their orbit however is not as straight forward as it seems. This process is made incredibly complex when looking at the political and legal implications of such manoeuvre, as is touched on below.

ADR Technology for Protecting the UK and its Allies

While the use of Active Debris Removal (ADR) technology offers enormous benefits for maintaining a safe and functional space environment, it also presents challenges to national security, particularly in terms of ensuring these capabilities are not misused. Preventing any nation from misusing satellites or other space objects is the Outer Space Treaty (OST) of 1967, a cornerstone of international space law [16]. This treaty, ratified by 111 countries, including all major spacefaring nations, establishes critical legislation that impacts all ADR operations.

Key Provisions:

• State Responsibility (Article VI): States are responsible for all space activities within their jurisdiction, whether conducted by governmental or private entities. This means that a country must authorise and supervise all ADR operations, ensuring they align with national and international legal standards.

• Liability for Damage (Article VII): States bear international liability for any damage caused by their space objects, including during ADR missions. Should an ADR operation inadvertently damage a foreign satellite, the state overseeing the mission is held accountable.

• No Sovereignty in Space (Article II): Space is considered a global common, meaning no nation can claim sovereignty over any part of it, including debris. As such, ADR activities must respect the principle of shared use and not infringe upon the rights of other nations.

These provisions, although not originally designed to accomplish this, ensure that ADR operations are not only carefully regulated but also operate within the confines of international law. They protect the global space community from misuse of ADR technology, ensuring that missions are conducted with authorisation and that potential liabilities are managed. Furthermore, the Registration Convention of 1976 mandates that all objects launched into space be registered with the United Nations, maintaining transparency and accountability [17].

Impact of the Registration Convention:

• Space Object Ownership: Ownership of space objects, including debris, remains with the launching state. This means ADR operators cannot legally remove debris without explicit permission from the owning state. Even if a piece of debris is non-functional or presents a hazard, coordination with the owner is essential before initiating any ADR mission.

This is an important convention that generally protects ADR from being misused, however, with the fragmentation events discussed in the first section contributing to the majority of the debris population, it soon becomes incredibly difficult to track and determine who is liable for all of the objects in space. This complexity can be further exaggerated for certain debris objects in high spatial density orbital regions that may find themselves involved in collisions as they decay.

Despite the above regulatory frameworks, the potential for adversarial use of ADR technology in the context of national security cannot be dismissed. Although there have been no confirmed cases of combative ADR manoeuvres as of September 2024, there are concerning precedents. For example, in 2021, China tested “space debris mitigation technologies” with minimal transparency about the SJ-21 satellite involved, raising suspicions and scrutiny from other nations [18][19].

 Given the heavy reliance on satellites for modern society and warfare, safeguarding these assets is crucial. The economic, social, and political impacts of satellite disruptions could be devastating. For instance, a scenario where an adversary uses ADR technology to displace the UK’s Skynet 6 satellite, a key communication asset for UK and NATO armed forces, would severely weaken military coordination. Such an action could lead to significant intelligence and communication failures, providing an adversary with a distinct battlefield advantage.

There are numerous other scenarios in which the misuse of ADR technology could result in catastrophic outcomes. Whether it’s disrupting secure communications, hindering surveillance, or degrading navigation systems, the potential military consequences are vast. As space increasingly becomes a contested domain, protecting critical satellite infrastructure against emerging threats will be essential to maintaining both national security and global stability.

The Future of ADR (Commercial vs Defence Applications)

There is growing optimism surrounding the future of Active Debris Removal (ADR), particularly in the commercial sector. A clear indication of this enthusiasm can be seen in the success of Astroscale, whose heavily oversubscribed IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange valued the company at $934 million, despite not having any private customers for their debris removal services yet [20]. This high valuation reflects the industry's anticipation of future demand for ADR as space debris becomes an increasingly urgent problem. 

For companies like Astroscale to generate significant revenue from private customers, legislation will be crucial. The U.S. has already taken a step in this direction. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has enacted regulations that impose fines on satellite operators who fail to clean up their debris, creating a financial incentive for companies to seek ADR services. By turning to Astroscale and similar providers, operators can avoid hefty fines while fulfilling their obligation to maintain a sustainable orbital environment.

A landmark moment occurred on October 2, 2023, when the FCC issued its first fine for non-compliance with orbital debris mitigation regulations. Dish Network agreed a fine of $150,000 for failing to properly dispose of the EchoStar-7satellite, which lacked sufficient fuel to perform a planned disposal manoeuvre [21]. Dish had intended to raise the satellite’s orbit by 300 km to remove it from the GEO Protection Region, but it only reached 122 km above its operational orbit. The public apology that accompanied the fine may have contributed to the 12.3% drop in Dish’s share price between the market’s opening on October 2nd and its closing on October 4th. This incident highlights the growing financial and reputational risks for companies that fail to responsibly manage their space assets.

However, while the FCC’s $150,000 fine marks a significant step forward, it may not be substantial enough to drive widespread demand for commercial ADR services. For the commercial success of companies like Astroscale, the fines must be large enough to encourage satellite operators to proactively seek ADR solutions rather than face the financial and reputational consequences of leaving debris in orbit.

At present, similar regulations have yet to be implemented in the UK or throughout the rest of the world, although there is a growing call for such legislation from the space sustainability community. As space debris continues to pose a threat to the operational lifespan of satellites, policymakers in these regions may soon follow the U.S.’s lead in imposing stricter mitigation requirements. 

Beyond the commercial realm, ADR’s role in national defence cannot be overlooked. With society’s heavy reliance on satellite services for communication, navigation, and defence, the capability to protect and defend these satellites is becoming more critical. The escalating geopolitical tensions on Earth further underscore the importance of being prepared for potential threats in space.

Adversaries already possess a range of counterspace weapons, including kinetic weapons like anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles, non-kinetic weapons such as directed energy devices that can blind or “dazzle” satellites, and electronic weapons capable of jamming or “spoofing” satellite links to disrupt GPS or communication signals [22]. Given the variety of threats that exist, it is increasingly clear that in-orbit counterspace operations, including ADR, will play a vital role in future defence strategies. The question is no longer whether we need ADR for commercial purposes but whether we can afford to be unprepared for when it is used against allied satellites.

Author Profile

Tom Love, Co-Founder & Director of Trinity Space Technologies, is a spacecraft engineering and business development consultant who is actively involved in developing solutions to global space sustainability/security issues that threaten our future. Tom also has experience researching the downstream applications of space products and developing IOSM technology.

Connect with me on LinkedIn!

References

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